Controls
Parameters
Statistics
Tick0
Active Rebels0
State Forces0
Controlled Territory0%
Avg Grievance0.00
Population0
Legend
Terrain
Plains
Hills
Mountains
Forest
Urban
Agents
Content population
Moderate grievance
High grievance / Rebel
State security forces
Rebel fighters
Capital
What to observe
Fearon & Laitin (2003) argue that civil war onset depends more on conditions that favor insurgency than on the intensity of grievances.
- Experiment 1 — Grievances without opportunity: Set Inequality and Ethnic Exclusion to 80, but keep State Capacity at 80 and Terrain Roughness low. Does large-scale rebellion emerge?
- Experiment 2 — Opportunity without grievances: Set Inequality and Exclusion to 20, but lower State Capacity to 15 and raise Terrain Roughness to 80. Do rebels still appear?
- Experiment 3 — The interaction: Start with moderate grievances (50/40) and gradually lower State Capacity. At what point does rebellion become viable?
- Experiment 4 — Walter’s excluded groups: Raise Ethnic Exclusion to 70 with moderate other settings. Where does rebellion concentrate?
Time Series
Rebels (%)
State Control
Avg Grievance